America’s Political Future

America’s political future is at one of the most uncertain points it’s ever reached. But, what do we still know?

Polarization

Since 2004, America has consistently been becoming more polarized. While many hoped that COVID-19 would bring the two parties together to fight against a common issue, it has done the opposite. Due to this polarization, America’s political future has been characterized by division along many fronts.

The urban/rural divide is one of the most notable ones. Polling has shown that urban voters are twice as likely to vote for the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. The same polls display the opposite effect in rural communities and, in suburban counties, found that the vote was nearly split equally (slightly favoring the Democrats).

Rather alarmingly, ethnic groups are more divided than cities and the countryside. All minorities support the Democratic Party by substantial margins. While a little less than a third of Hispanics and Asian Americans support the Republican Party, a mere 8% of Black voters support it. The recent protests will likely increase the polarization even more.

The final major political divide is based on gender. While the margins are less substantial than those above, they are still significant enough to be of importance. 37% of women identify as Republicans compared to about half of men.

Demographic & Political Trends

This polarization among different demographics can help us guess future political trends. In the past few decades, this polarization has become more pronounced and is expected to continue doing so. We can, therefore, predict future political trends based on the demographic changes the US is going through.

As a countrywide trend, it won’t look good for the Republicans. This is because the minority population is expected to increase substantially. Whites are projected to account for less than half of the population in around 25 years compared to two-thirds currently.

However, these projections will unfold over a long period of time. In the next decade, the nation will see smaller statewide changes. The Rust Belt flipping red was not a one-time occurrence. While Biden may flip it back this year after the COVID-19 chaos, the Rust Belt is trending in favor of the GOP. This is primarily due to the region having a small minority population that is increasing at a slower rate than the national average.

With its big and ever-increasing minority population on top of rapid urbanization, the South is trending Democratic at a quick rate. States like Georgia and Texas are already starting to become competitive.

In the short-term, the rest of the country is expected to keep similar views. While the short-term changes may sound pretty even, when you take a look at a projected near future electoral map you may be surprised by how disadvantaged the GOP is unless it adapts. In around a decade the Democratic Party is projected to have 233 electoral votes that are very likely to go to them compared to a mere 128 for the Republicans (177 electoral votes could be considered tossups or only slightly leaning to one side). This is mainly since losing Texas for the Republicans would mean losing the state with the second most electoral votes (after California). 

This does not mean the Republican Party will die a slow death. Rather, it will have to alter its platform to become more appealing to minority, female, and urban voters. Alarmingly, the GOP under Trump is relying on manipulation and misinformation as a short-term strategy to get the votes they need. This strategy will probably not be sustainable in the long run. 

Overall, as long as the Republican Party does not manage to strongly curb immigration, they will need to alter their platforms. This may mean that laws supporting gender equality and that aid minorities will become more prevalent in the United States. The next step is to see if Joe Biden manages to win the presidency and if the GOP can retain the Senate, which will unfold to reveal America’s political future.