The 2020 election is a turning point in American history. With differences in political parties becoming especially prominent, this year’s election will have a lasting impact. Not only did Joe Biden receive the most votes out of any presidential candidate ever, but he also managed to flip historically Republican states blue. For example, Arizona was Republican in the last three elections, yet, in 2020, voted for Biden. Perhaps that occurred out of support for Biden, but shifts in voting demographics seem to be an essential factor in this flip.
To return to Arizona as an example, the state has been projected to be a minority-majority state by 2027. This means that groups that are typically the minority of the entire United States become the majority demographic of a state. This is unsurprising, considering Arizona has Asian, Hispanic, and black populations that are rising considerably. In fact, in 2003, there were more births to Hispanics than to non-Hispanic whites. Additionally, many of the Democrat majority areas are in the south of Arizona, near the Mexican border, where many immigrants likely live.
However, this isn’t the only explanation for such shifts in voting demographics. For one, social liberalism is on the rise. Organizations such as Black Lives Matter, Planned Parenthood, and the American Civil Liberties Union are gaining more and more support. For example, the 2020 George Floyd protests spanned cities, countries, and even continents. Furthermore, American conservatism is generally linked to religion, and Christianity is also on a decline in America. According to Pew Research, across races, a lack of affiliation with religion is on the rise in every racial group, and every generation. Atheists are typically progressives as well, as a whopping 69% of Atheists lean towards the Democrat party. The West has a long history of supporting secularism, which could also explain the overall decline in religion across Europe and North America.
Additionally, former President Trump has alienated many of his former supporters with his work as president, especially with the coronavirus pandemic. Many former supporters feel that Trump did not take it seriously, and therefore are going with Biden for their vote. Democrats desperately wanted Trump out of office, so their turnout was high. However, most years, Democrats often voted less than their conservative counterparts.
Even beyond Trump’s response to COVID-19, Biden’s policies seem to be more attractive to the average person. The Democratic Party’s welfare policies will do a great deal to help those devastated by the pandemic. The Republican Party’s platform is fiscally conservative, which would alienate the millions unemployed or financially struggling. On top of that, Trump’s lack of tax breaks for the middle class despite his populist approach has been bad for his political campaign as well.
There’s another surprising factor in shifts in voting demographics in America – social media. The internet holds numerous capabilities, whether it’s searching for a political candidate’s policies, or seeking out viewpoints other than your own. Before the internet, finding opposing viewpoints and backgrounds was difficult, especially if limited to your place of residence. Social media can challenge people’s perceptions and opinions. Pew Research found that about a quarter of adult social media users say that social media changed their views. Younger people tend to be more liberal and more supportive of Democrats, and are also the primary users of social media. Therefore, social media may play an instrumental role in facilitating a paradigm shift in America.
Internet trends have certainly had an impact on election results. The Black Lives Matter movement was sparked by a Facebook post made when George Zimmerman had been found not guilty of murdering Trayvon Martin. It has become especially prominent on social media and has undoubtedly influenced election results after the death of George Floyd made the movement a subject of political controversy.
Texas, an Unexpected Battleground
One of the most prominent battleground states during the 2020 election was the state of Texas. Texas had been speculated to flip from majority Republican to Democratic ever since the 2018 Senate election between Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz, a Republican. Cruz was able to beat O’Rourke with a narrow margin of about 2.6 percentage points, which was the closest margin since the 1978 Senate election between John Tower and Bob Krueger. O’Rourke also ran during the 2020 presidential election only to drop out earlier than most major Democratic candidates.
This was the most major indication that Texas may be flipping blue. Furthermore, major cities within Texas, including Austin, Dallas, and Houston, had been experiencing large amounts of immigration due to having some of the best job opportunities in the country. A large influx of young Americans, most of whom were Democrats, made the impression that Texas would be becoming a Democratic state during the 2020 presidential election.
To many people’s surprise, President Trump had won Texas with a considerable lead of 52.1 percent compared to 46.5 percent. The most populated areas of Texas, along with regions along the Texas and Mexico border, had voted for Vice President Biden as was expected. However, the overwhelming majority of rural and even suburban areas in Texas had still voted for Trump, giving him an edge over Biden.
Another indirect factor that isn’t often touched upon is ideological shifts that accompany immigration. People may be more inclined to vote Republican if they observe that immigrants are taking over too many job opportunities and resources without having a positive impact on their society. Conversely, a surge in well educated and impactful immigrants can lead to an increase in the Democratic voter population.
In Texas’ case, most of the people who immigrated over the past few decades were skilled and looking for jobs in major cities. Although Texas is still majority Republican, the Democratic voter population has still increased dramatically, so much so that Texas was considered to be a swing state.
The fact that Trump had won by such a small margin compared to previous Republican candidates is notable. Biden may have been able to win in Texas and other swing states if he had been able to win more of the Hispanic and Latino population. In elections in the near future, the country may observe some of the most unexpected shifts in voting demographics the nation has seen.